### Table 5: Loss of Safe Status — Cloglog Models

| Specification | N | Events | Pseudo-R² | AUC | OADR Coef |
|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| 3b.1: OADR | 884 | 7 | 0.000 | 0.543 | -0.311 |
| 3b.2: OADR + fiscal | 819 | 7 | 0.118 | 0.814 | -5.370 |
| 3b.3: Full | 819 | 7 | 0.223 | 0.881 | -8.184 |

*Restricted to country-years with lagged rating >= AA-. Complementary log-log link function (rare events). Low-power caveat: only 7 events.*
